In working with several clients of mine, I’ve become intimately familiar with the $10M plus marketplace in Manhattan. I predict the $10M plus marketplace will offer buyers great opportunities through 2019.
Why? In 2012 developers started building luxury buildings; the high cost of land and development somewhat forced developers’ hands into the luxe market to make numbers work. An unprecedented re-sale at 15 Central Park West topped $80 million started the ultra-luxury race at One57 and in Manhattan, everyone chased the money. The market took off and developers followed and the funnel of buyers seemed unending.
20/20 hindsight shows us that the top of the market was early 2016. Cracks started though in 2014 when oil prices dropped, the US dollar strengthened, Manhattan’s prices shot through the roof and BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) growth faltered. Looking for better returns global buyers turned to other markets including San Francisco and the Los Angeles area. This market continues to adjust here.
Today (Jan 28, 2019) in Manhattan there are 600+/- active homes priced above $10 Million: 8% of all active listings on the market. As a comparison in 2014, $10M+ sales represented only 1-2% of Manhattan properties. We have a high inventory issue.
Newly signed $10 Million+ contracts currently average approximately 19 per month, meaning there’s a 30-month supply of $10 million+ homes in Manhattan. Uber-luxe homes which sold in Jan 2019, were discounted from 7-30% off their last asks.